UBS analysts expect copper prices to rise next year due to a reduction in supplies amid constant disruptions in the operation of mines.
In addition, the increase will be supported by strong long-term demand associated with the transition to “clean” energy and increased investment in this area, the bank said in a statement.
UBS raised its forecast for the price of copper at the end of the first quarter of 2026 by $750 to $11.5 thousand. per ton. Expectations for June and September were immediately raised by $1,000 to $12,000 and $12,500 per tonne, respectively. Experts also set a target level for December next year at $13,000 per ton.
Analysts now believe that the global copper deficit this year will be about 230,000 tons versus the previously expected 53,000 tons, and in 2026 - 407,000 tons versus 87,000 tons. They say dwindling inventories and ongoing supply risks will keep the economy strained.
Mine disruptions this year, including production problems at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, a slower production recovery in Chile and repeatede protests in Peru highlight structural supply constraints that are likely to persist until 2026, the report says. bank.
Freeport-McMoRan said it plans to resume production at its Grasberg copper-gold mine by July after a fatal incident two months ago shut down operations.
UBS cut its refined copper production growth forecast to 1.2% in 2025 and 2.2% next year, citing deteriorating ore quality and operational problems. Analysts expect global demand for the metal to increase by 2.8% both this and next year due to the development of renewable energy sources, electric vehicles, investments in power grids and data centers.
Bank experts believe that any price decline will be short-lived and recommend maintaining long positions in copper.
Previously, the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center released a video dedicated to global copper production and the leading producing countries - https://youtube.com/shorts/_h8iU50z8C0?si=a-XkgGEfeUxseQNa
